COVID-19 Industry Impact Report: Restaurant Industry

With the shelter-in-place regulations in full effect, many businesses are being compelled to find creative ways to offer their services.  No longer able to provide dine-in services, many of Minnesota’s restaurants and breweries have leaned on curbside pickup – allowing customers to pull up outside the business to pick up their food and drink order with minimal interaction with others.  Kim Carlton, an environmental health supervisor at the Minnesota Department of Health states that, “Curbside is a good opportunity to still get food from your favorite restaurants locally,” but adds, “we really just want to stress that you keep washing your hands regularly.”

From an economic perspective, supporting local businesses through curbside pickup or delivery could decrease the expected drop in food and retail sales.  This would be a brush of optimism in the painting of a picture for what may come to the restaurant industry – record earnings and job loss.


This model above, using Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) RIMS II multipliers, helps illustrate the possible near-term economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The above illustration of a worst-case scenario of a loss of 3 months of Full-Service Restaurant sales—or 25% of the industry’s typical annual sales—shows possible earnings, jobs, and tax revenue impact across Minnesota.  Initial losses in earnings or employment represent income or positions lost immediately in the short-term because of the reduction in sales in the Full-Service Restaurant Industry, whereas direct losses can be directly attributed to the event, but may be felt outside of the specific Full-Service Restaurant Industry. Indirect losses are wages and jobs in the firms that sell goods and services to the Full-Service Restaurant industry (such as food, cleaning supplies, and other goods), who are impacted as business slows.  Finally, induced losses occur when employees of the Full-Service Restaurant Industry and other related industries affected have less of a local economic spending power in their communities due to loss of work, and have a negative resulting impact on other broader aspects of the economy.



Based on the demographic makeup of employees currently working in industries likely to be impacted by strain on the Full-Service Restaurant Industry, a disproportionate burden of job and wages loss will likely be placed on female workers—particularly young workers between the ages of 14 and 34.

These projections are alarming, but they are not certain.  What is certain, is the positive impact businesses are seeing from these alternative methods of providing services.  Don Seiler, owner of Inver Grove Brewing in Inver Grove Heights and Lakeville Brewing in Lakeville states, “Curbside ordering has allowed us to maintain a critical revenue stream.  Although it is not as high as dine-in service, curbside business is covering fixed expenses and enabling us to keep a core group of employees on payroll.”

For questions about this report, contact Erin Olson, Research Strategist at erin@realtimetalentmn.org


Change in Earnings: Represents total change in earnings resulting from the initial, user-made change. This figure includes the initial change. The change in earnings figure is dependent upon the multiplier listed below.  Source: RealTime Talent analysis using Emsi data based primarily on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Change in Jobs: The total number of jobs changed, including the initial change. The figure is dependent upon the multiplier listed below.  Source: RealTime Talent analysis using Emsi’s model, incorporating data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Taxes on Production and Imports: Taxes on production and imports (TPI) consist of tax liabilities, such as general sales and property taxes,that are chargeable to business expense in the calculation of profit-type incomes. Special assessments are also included. TPI is comprised of state and local taxes—primarily non-personal property taxes, licenses, and sales and gross receipts taxes—and Federal excise taxes on goods and services.  Source: RealTime Talent analysis using Emsi’s model, incorporating data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Interview with Kim Carlton: Click Here

Empty Restaurant Photo by 99.films on Unsplash

Season Change

Just as fall brings about changes to the leaves of the trees, so too has it brought about changes for RealTime Talent.  On October 1st, RealTime Talent moved into the office space of the Center for Economic Inclusion.  With boxes in hand, we trekked through the St. Paul skyway and made our way to the Osborn370 building to take advantage of the expansive and warm environment on the 9th floor.  This space will allow RealTime Talent to continue to remain diligent in the cross-sector work of statewide labor market analysis and workforce alignment, and we look forward to even more opportunities for CEI and RealTime Talent to collaborate and work to build a prosperous and inclusive economy.  We are grateful to Tawanna Black and the CEI team for accommodating and welcoming us.

We are excited to share news that the Minneapolis Regional Chamber Development Foundation, a 501(c)(3) charitable organization, will now be our fiscal agent, to act on our behalf to perform various financial duties and administrative tasks.  We thank Jonathan Weinhagen, Cheri Gengler, and all the Minneapolis Regional Chamber staff for their assistance.   We also thank the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce Foundation for serving as our fiscal sponsor over the past two years.

Thank you to all those that partner with RealTime Talent.  It is truly the strength of our partnerships that fuels our mission into action.

For more information contact phil@realtimetalentmn.org

RTT’s Erin Olson Teams Up With Minnesota Compass

This past month, RealTime Talent research strategist Erin Olson had the opportunity to collaborate with Minnesota Compass’ research scientist Justin Hollis to author an article focusing on Minnesota’s workforce shortage.  The article highlights the early warning signs found in high job vacancies around 2016 as well as the potential ways our state could chip away at this shortage. This article, along with other great content from Minnesota Compass can be found HERE.

Minnesota Compass is a social indicators project that measures progress in our state and its communities. Led by Wilder Research, Minnesota Compass provides nonpartisan, credible information and tracks trends in topic areas such as education, economy, workforce, health, housing, and a host of others.

Real-time Data in Non-Profit Career Services

Imagine.  A powerful magic box.  Inside this magic box is information – and this information has the ability to influence your knowledge of job market trends by presenting the most current and in demand jobs, skills, and certifications, in any area of the state of Minnesota.  Remember, the box is magical – so feel free […]

Labor Market Data in Career and Technical Education

As Career and Technical Education awareness month comes to an end, we acknowledge our many partners that play a vital role in CTE and thank you for all your hard work in this space.  RealTime Talent has long collaborated with many of our CTE partners to provide labor market and career data aimed to inform students and job-seekers.  In 2017, through Perkins federal funding, we created a series of reports offering insight into three career clusters through the lens of employer demand including Agriculture, Food, & Natural Resources, Business, Management, & Administration, and Finance.  These reports, along with a series of career pathways reports, were distributed among CTE coordinators and educators throughout Minnesota.  To view or download these reports, click HERE.

Last November, RealTime Talent developed career pathway handouts for the White Bear Lake area school district, highlighting four key areas including Healthcare, Manufacturing, Construction, and IT pathways in Ramsey County. “These youth-friendly handouts were created to inform students on the career building jobs they may qualify for now or in the near future,” said Erin Olson, RealTime Talent Research Strategist.  “By using school colors and images like emojis, these reports are appealing to the reader and can spark great conversation about these careers.”

Jenny Moore, the Career Pathways Navigator for the White Bear Lake Area Schools said, “I love everything about these reports” as she distributed them at a career expo attended by over 300 students and more than 70 industry partners.  “It is truly amazing what RealTime Talent has done for our local community.”  After Jenny shared these reports with secondary educators in her district, Shannon Grant, a Health and Physical Education Teacher at White Bear Lake High School, used the reports for a unique classroom assignment.  Her students used the data provided on the career pathway handouts to gain insights and do further research on a career they may be interested in.  These students experienced a fun way to engage in career exploration and developed some creative handouts of their own as well.

Creative work from a WBL student inspired by career data.

As we continue to promote the use of tools that address labor force needs and support our education system, RealTime Talent has been working with multiple CTE consortia, providing training and data consultation with TalentNeuron – a real-time job post data tool.  Recently, RealTime Talent trained 30 career counselors and educators from the Wayzata area high schools.  We look forward to how these educators will incorporate real-time labor and career information into their own classes.  If you are an educator who’s interested in our research services or real-time labor market tools, reach out to us today! 

If you have any questions about the work of RealTime Talent with Career and Technical Education, please contact Phil Arellano.