MSP Metro Workforce Report May 17 – 23, 2020
In light of the tragic events experienced in our community and across the nation this past week following the murder of Mr. George Floyd, we took a different approach to this report. Our community has been shaken to its core as a result of the long-standing, systemic racism that has existed in our country for too long. We must do better to rebuild an economy that works for all people.
RealTime Talent begins highlighting the critical needs of employers in the 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metro (MSP) by lifting up the top jobs, skills, and certifications advertised by employers,[1] as well as the top locations that employers are advertising openings aligned with five of the region’s most critical sectors.[2] This report focuses on jobs that require an Associate’s degree or less and includes an in-depth analysis of one occupation that is high-demand, high-opportunity, and/or high-growth. Given the disparity of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, we offer these insights to guide the many people who will be seeking work and those who advise individuals seeking work.
Next, we highlight the disparities in wage attainment and turnover in all occupations in the retail, administration, and wage management industries, as well as highlight the broader disparities in employment, labor force participation, wages, and postsecondary education in the MSP Metro.
1 SOURCE: All data in this section is from new jobs posted online in the 7-county Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metro between May 17-23, 2020. Data includes staffing agencies and represents deduplicated new job posts from all corporate websites and job boards. Trend comparison to a prior period refers to the week immediately prior. All data was gathered from TalentNeuron Recruit, www.wantedanalytics.com on May 31, 2020.
2 All sectors are defined as job families that are related by skills, competencies, and career pathways, with the exception of Government jobs. The Government sector is identified by city, county, regional, and state government employers.
Occupations in Focus: Retail, Hospitality, and Administration/Waste Management
Turnover, career advancement, and wages vary significantly across occupations and industries. Sadly, here in the MSP Metro the Retail, Hospitality, and Administration and Waste Management Services Industries[3] have high stable turnover rates and dramatic disparities by race and ethnicity of any industry.
Across all industries in the MSP Metro, stable turnover[4] sat at about 10.9% as of 2018—and on average over the past 24 years.[5] In contrast, Retail had a 12.2% stable turnover rate, Hospitality (Accommodation and Food Services) a 15.5% stable turnover rate, and Administration and Waste Management Services an 18.7% turnover rate.
Retail
When looking at trends in separations[6] broken apart by race and ethnicity, it is clear that experiences of workers in these three industries is varied. In the Retail Industry, Black and African American workers have some of the highest stable turnover rates quarter-to-quarter, and the highest separation rates in the industry of any group, starting since 2012.[7] This means that both long-standing and new Black and African American employees are leaving their jobs—voluntarily or involuntarily—at higher rates than other groups.
[3] Industry name shortened from Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services.
[4] Stable turnover is defined as the rate at which stable jobs—positions held by the same employee throughout an entire year—begin and end. Stable turnover is calculated by summing the number of stable hires in the reference period and stable separations in the next period, then dividing by the average full-period employment.
[5] U.S. Census Bureau. Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), 2018. Stable turnover is calculated by summing the number of stable hires in the reference quarter and stable separations in the next quarter, then dividing by the average full quarter employment. The 4 quarters are then averaged.
[6] Yearly average separations are the estimated number of workers whose job with a given employer ended in a given quarter. The quarters are averaged to account for seasonality. It is a useful measure of what types of workers are leaving their jobs, either voluntarily or involuntarily.
[7] U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metropolitan Area. Race categories are for non-Hispanic individuals. Accessed at https://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/static/explore.html#x=0&g=0 NAICS 44-45
In Retail, White non-Hispanic stable employees[8] working for a company for at least one full year earned approximately $1,000 more on average per month than Black, Indigenous, and People of Color here in the MSP Metro. While white workers saw an 86.5% increase in average monthly stable earnings from 1994 to 2018, Black and African American workers only saw a 64.9% increase in average stable earnings in the same time frame.
Hospitality
In the Hospitality Industry,[9] job separations[10] were highest for all workers between July and September, and lowest between January and March. Workers of all racial and ethnic backgrounds have seen similar trends in yearly average separations since 1994, but Black and Hispanic Hospitality workers saw a dramatic increase in separation rates than other groups since 2010. Stable turnover rates are highest for Black and African American employees in this industry.[11]
In the Hospitality Industry, yearly stable earnings[12] are relatively comparable for people of all backgrounds, in comparison to other industries. Hispanic-Asian workers had the highest average yearly stable earnings as of 2018, making about $2,044 on average monthly. The lowest-earning group of workers are those of two or more race groups, though they experienced an average increase of 114% from 1995 through 2018, similar to gains in other groups and lagging the top-earning group by just over $300.
[9] Industry name shortened from Accommodation and Food Services.
[10] Yearly average separations are the estimated number of workers whose job with a given employer ended in a given quarter. The quarters are averaged to account for seasonality. It is a useful measure of what types of workers are leaving their jobs, either voluntarily or involuntarily.
[11] U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metropolitan Area. Race categories are for non-Hispanic individuals. Accessed at https://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/static/explore.html#x=0&g=0 NAICS 44-45
[12] Stable earnings are the wages of employees that worked at the same firm throughout a reference period—in this case, a full year.
Administration and Waste Management
In the Administration and Waste Management Industry[13] Black, African American, and Asian workers have some of the highest turnover rates quarter-to-quarter of any group. While separations[14] have held steady for Black, Indigenous, and People of Color working in the industry, separations dropped considerably for White non-Hispanic workers between 1999 and 2018.[15]
[13] Industry name shortened from Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services.
14] Yearly average separations are the estimated number of workers whose job with a given employer ended in a given quarter. The quarters are averaged to account for seasonality. It is a useful measure of what types of workers are leaving their jobs, either voluntarily or involuntarily.
15] U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metropolitan Area. Race categories are for non-Hispanic individuals. Accessed at https://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/static/explore.html#x=0&g=0 NAICS 44-45
In Administration and Waste Management, White non-Hispanic workers saw a 140% increase in average monthly stable earnings[16] from 1994-2018, from $1,806 to $4,335. Black workers saw a 169% increase in average monthly stable earnings in the same timeframe, from $847 to $2,282 monthly—about half of what the average White worker in the industry makes.
[17] Stable earnings are the wages of employees that worked at the same firm throughout a reference period—in this case, a full year.
Disparities Across the Broader Metropolitan Area
The following analysis was developed in October 2019 for the Greater Metropolitan Workforce Council (GMWC) to set regional goals and targets to eliminate disparities in employment and attainment in higher education in the MSP Metro. Given how the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting occupations held disproportionately by Black, Indigenous, and People of Color, these baseline measures will help to track the short-term impacts and long-term recovery process of the pandemic.
Job Loss Disparity:
Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit our nation, there has been a dramatic and sustained impact on our businesses and workers. However, job losses have not been equal across workers by age, race, ethnicity, or gender. As highlighted below, workers ages 20 to 34 and over the age of 65 have lost their jobs at a greater rate than their share of the local workforce, as have women, people with some college (but no degree) or less, and all people of color. In contrast, non-Hispanic White workers, male workers, those with higher education, and individuals between 45 and 64 years of age have experienced fewer layoffs as a proportion of employment.
SOURCE: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) estimates of employment by demographic, modeled by JobsEQ for 2019Q4. Unemployment Insurance applications filed, MN DEED, accessed 6/2/2020 at https://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/unemployment-insurance-statistics/
Disparities in Wage Attainment
According to the most recent estimates available, overall, 78.1% of full-time, full-year workers between the ages of 18-64 are earning family-sustaining wages in the Metro area.[17][18] However, only 62% of full-time, full-year-working Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) are earning family-sustaining wages, with even more disparate outcomes for some key racial and ethnic groups.
Overall, the MSP Metro has a higher share of BIPOC individuals earning family-sustaining wages than in other parts of Minnesota or the nation overall. Rates for people with disabilities has also been high but has dropped incrementally over the past 10 years. The charts below illustrate the share of full-time, full-year BIPOC workers and workers with disabilities earning family-sustaining wages as of most recent American Community Survey estimates.
[17] Data found in the following four sections was developed jointly by RealTime Talent and the Brookings Institute for the Greater Metropolitan Workforce Council’s regional goal setting process. All data is available from 1-year American Community Survey Estimates for 2017.
[18] Full-time was defined as working 35 or more hours per week, and full-year was defined as working 50 or more weeks out of the year. “Family-sustaining” was defined as at or above 185% of the Federal Poverty Level threshold for 2017 ($34,451.81) in inflation-adjusted 2017 dollars. The average household size for 2017 was 2.57 people. Excludes self-employed and active-duty personnel; only includes wage and salary income, not other personal income from additional or alternative sources; ages 16-64; 1-year American Community Survey Estimates for 2017 from IPUMS data.
Disparities in Employment
Overall, 80.2% of MSP Metro residents ages 18-64 were employed as of the most-recent American Community Survey Estimates.[19] However, only 73.9% of people of color and indigenous persons (BIPOC) were employed, with rates for African Americans and American Indians recorded at the lowest of any racial or ethnic subgroup. Only 48.7% of people with disabilities were employed in the MSP Metro.
[19] Employment status is defined as individuals with full or part-time employment where wages or salary are received, those who have a job but are not currently working, are self-employed, or work in a family-owned business without pay; ages 16-64; 1-year American Community Survey Estimates for 2017 from IPUMS data.
Disparities in Labor Force Participation
In all, The MSP Metro has one of the highest labor force participation rates in the nation, sitting at about 83.5% for the population 18-64 years of age over the past 8 years.[20] Since the recession, the labor force participation rate of Black, Indigenous, and People of Color has increased significantly, reaching 79.2% across the metro in most recent estimates. Women have also increased in participation but to a lesser degree, sitting at 80.6%.
[19] Employment status is defined as individuals with full or part-time employment where wages or salary are received, those who have a job but are not currently working, are self-employed, or work in a family-owned business without pay; ages 16-64; 1-year American Community Survey Estimates for 2017 from IPUMS data.
[20] Labor force participation is defined as anyone who is employed or unemployed regardless of whether or not they are self-employed or work in a family-owned business without pay; Excludes individuals living in group quarters; ages 16-64; 1-year American Community Survey Estimates for 2017 from IPUMS Microdata.
Disparities in Postsecondary Attainment
The state legislature has set a target for 70% adults ages 25-44 to hold a certificate or higher by 2025, a significant increase from the current level of 62%. In the MSP Metro, there are disparities in educational attainment by race and ethnicity. It is estimated that about 58.5% of all people 25-44 years of age in the metro have a certificate or higher in the Metro; however, only 31.8% of American Indians and 24.1% of the Hispanic/Latinx population have attainment at these levels.[21]
[21] Certificate attainment is modeled by the Minnesota Office of Higher Education and the MN Demographer using completion data reported by colleges and universities statewide, modeled against 5-year American Community Survey data. Estimates for educational attainment in the Metro are based on statewide 5-year estimates modeled and provided to RealTime Talent and the Greater Metropolitan Workforce Council by the Minnesota Office of Higher Education in September of 2019.
Report released on 6/2/2020 by RealTime Talent on the INSIGHTS blog at www.realtimetalent.org. All data in the first section of this report is from TalentNeuron Recruit, accessed May 31, 2020 at www.wantedanalytics.com. Data from the Occupations in Focus section of this report is from American Community Survey 2017, 1-Year Estimates, TalentNeuron (job postings) and JobsEQ, a tool of Chmura Economics, accessed May 31, 2020. Contact Erin Olson, Research Strategist at erin@realtimetalentmn.org with any questions or inquiries.
