Posts

COVID-19 Industry Impact Report: Restaurant Industry

With the shelter-in-place regulations in full effect, many businesses are being compelled to find creative ways to offer their services.  No longer able to provide dine-in services, many of Minnesota’s restaurants and breweries have leaned on curbside pickup – allowing customers to pull up outside the business to pick up their food and drink order with minimal interaction with others.  Kim Carlton, an environmental health supervisor at the Minnesota Department of Health states that, “Curbside is a good opportunity to still get food from your favorite restaurants locally,” but adds, “we really just want to stress that you keep washing your hands regularly.”

From an economic perspective, supporting local businesses through curbside pickup or delivery could decrease the expected drop in food and retail sales.  This would be a brush of optimism in the painting of a picture for what may come to the restaurant industry – record earnings and job loss.


This model above, using Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) RIMS II multipliers, helps illustrate the possible near-term economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The above illustration of a worst-case scenario of a loss of 3 months of Full-Service Restaurant sales—or 25% of the industry’s typical annual sales—shows possible earnings, jobs, and tax revenue impact across Minnesota.  Initial losses in earnings or employment represent income or positions lost immediately in the short-term because of the reduction in sales in the Full-Service Restaurant Industry, whereas direct losses can be directly attributed to the event, but may be felt outside of the specific Full-Service Restaurant Industry. Indirect losses are wages and jobs in the firms that sell goods and services to the Full-Service Restaurant industry (such as food, cleaning supplies, and other goods), who are impacted as business slows.  Finally, induced losses occur when employees of the Full-Service Restaurant Industry and other related industries affected have less of a local economic spending power in their communities due to loss of work, and have a negative resulting impact on other broader aspects of the economy.



Based on the demographic makeup of employees currently working in industries likely to be impacted by strain on the Full-Service Restaurant Industry, a disproportionate burden of job and wages loss will likely be placed on female workers—particularly young workers between the ages of 14 and 34.

These projections are alarming, but they are not certain.  What is certain, is the positive impact businesses are seeing from these alternative methods of providing services.  Don Seiler, owner of Inver Grove Brewing in Inver Grove Heights and Lakeville Brewing in Lakeville states, “Curbside ordering has allowed us to maintain a critical revenue stream.  Although it is not as high as dine-in service, curbside business is covering fixed expenses and enabling us to keep a core group of employees on payroll.”

For questions about this report, contact Erin Olson, Research Strategist at erin@realtimetalentmn.org


Change in Earnings: Represents total change in earnings resulting from the initial, user-made change. This figure includes the initial change. The change in earnings figure is dependent upon the multiplier listed below.  Source: RealTime Talent analysis using Emsi data based primarily on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Change in Jobs: The total number of jobs changed, including the initial change. The figure is dependent upon the multiplier listed below.  Source: RealTime Talent analysis using Emsi’s model, incorporating data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Taxes on Production and Imports: Taxes on production and imports (TPI) consist of tax liabilities, such as general sales and property taxes,that are chargeable to business expense in the calculation of profit-type incomes. Special assessments are also included. TPI is comprised of state and local taxes—primarily non-personal property taxes, licenses, and sales and gross receipts taxes—and Federal excise taxes on goods and services.  Source: RealTime Talent analysis using Emsi’s model, incorporating data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Interview with Kim Carlton: Click Here

Empty Restaurant Photo by 99.films on Unsplash

RTT’s Erin Olson Teams Up With Minnesota Compass

This past month, RealTime Talent research strategist Erin Olson had the opportunity to collaborate with Minnesota Compass’ research scientist Justin Hollis to author an article focusing on Minnesota’s workforce shortage.  The article highlights the early warning signs found in high job vacancies around 2016 as well as the potential ways our state could chip away at this shortage. This article, along with other great content from Minnesota Compass can be found HERE.

Minnesota Compass is a social indicators project that measures progress in our state and its communities. Led by Wilder Research, Minnesota Compass provides nonpartisan, credible information and tracks trends in topic areas such as education, economy, workforce, health, housing, and a host of others.

Know another language? Bilingual jobs are on the rise in Minnesota

If English isn’t your only language, you can find some great opportunities that leverage your unique skills

 

¿Se Habla Español? Chances are good that you do, because speaking a language other than English is at an all-time high in the United States.

As of 2015, one in five Americans—nearly 62 million people—speak a language other than English at home, an increase of 50 percent since 1990 (U.S. Census Bureau).  Here in Minnesota, the number of people speaking more than one language has been on a steady rise, and now nearly 12 percent of prime working age adults speak a language other than English at home (U.S. Census Bureau).  And this population is fairly well-educated. Over half (54 percent) have an associate degree or higher or at least some college.  Classrooms are seeing a dramatic rise in linguistic diversity as well, with 75 percent of Minneapolis classrooms having at least one student speaking a language other than English, according to data from Minneapolis Public Schools. Considering that multilingualism is expected to keep growing in Minnesota, it’s more important now than ever to bring this linguistic diversity into our workplaces.

In Minnesota, the most common languages are Spanish, Hmong, and the Cushite language family including Oromo, Somali, and Sidamo, but nationwide the largest increases have been among speakers of Spanish, Chinese, and Arabic.  These happen to also be the sought-after languages employers hire for, according to the Center for Immigration Studies and New American Economy.  In fact, bilingualism was one of the top five most in-demand hard skills in Minnesota in 2015 according to online job posting data (TalentNeuron Recruit).

These trends mean more job opportunities are opening up for bilingual workers in most states. Between 2010 and 2015, the number of online job postings targeting multilingual or bilingual workers more than doubled in Minnesota, matching trends nationwide.  However, since a peak in the summer of 2015, counts of job opportunities specifically indicating a need for multilingual workers has been on a moderate decline—despite overall counts of job opportunities continuing to rise.

Using TalentNeuron Recruit, we identified the most in-demand occupations for people with bilingual skills, as well as the top cities and companies where you can find these jobs. Explore the lists below to get a picture of the bilingual job landscape in Minnesota.

Top cities hiring bilingual workers

Most Minnesota jobs hiring bilingual and multilingual individuals are located in large metropolitan areas, where the populations themselves tend to be more diverse or growing substantially.

City Number of Bilingual Jobs available in July 2017

Percent of Total Local Jobs available in July 2017

1.    Minneapolis 668 1.8%
2.    Saint Paul 330 2%
3.    Bloomington 104 1.7%
4.    Saint Cloud 83 1.4%
5.    Minnetonka 68 1.7%
6.    Eden Prairie 59 1.1%
7.    Rochester 55 1.1%
8.    Mankato 47 1.7%
9.    Eagan 44 1%
10. Duluth 33 0.7%

Top companies hiring bilingual workers

These employers had the most job opportunities open in July for a bilingual skill set in Minnesota.

  1. Tri-Valley Opportunity Council, Inc.
  2. Wells Fargo
  3. PromoWorks
  4. H&R Block
  5. The Valspar Corporation
  6. CrossMark
  7. U.S. Bank
  8. CSL Plasma
  9. Planned Parenthood
  10. Wireless Vision

Top jobs hiring bilingual workers

Sales and business development has the highest demand currently for bilingual workers, with 817 jobs available in Minnesota in this function area—up 30% from July of last year. These are the top occupations requiring bilingual skills in Minnesota (to the 8-digit SOC level).

  1. Customer Service Representatives
  2. Retail Salespersons
  3. Social and Human Services Assistants
  4. Tellers
  5. Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers
  6. Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
  7. Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers
  8. Registered Nurses
  9. Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers
  10. Healthcare Support Workers

 

Want to read more on this topic? Let us know in the comments.

Top Trending Entry-Level Healthcare Positions Focus on In-Home Care

It’s no secret that there is huge demand for Home Health Aides across the United States.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics put out a report early last year, and the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) followed suit in June 2016 with their article, “H is for Home Health Aide.” But will these positions be attractive to future workers who will have increasingly more choice in our nation’s job market and are looking for opportunities that offer a living wage and professional advancement?  Maybe not, unless employers start changing what they offer.

As many Minnesotans age and require additional medical attention (the population of Minnesotans over 65 years of age will increase by more than 400,000 people between 2014 and 2024), the need for Healthcare Support Professionals is increasing rapidly. Couple that with a growing preference to receive care in the home rather than in a care facility, the demand for Home Health Aides is skyrocketing.  In 2016, there were approximately 27,550 Home Health Aides working in the state and 4,457 Home Health Aide job openings advertised online; the occupation ranks as the 21st most in-demand position and the 20th most common occupation in Minnesota today.  Demand is projected to grow by 30.1 percent (9,254 jobs) between 2014 and 2024–the third highest growth rate of any occupation in Minnesota. However, these positions offer some of the lowest salaries of any occupation in the healthcare industry, with a median wage of $24,944 and currently advertised positions only offering $20-26k as a starting salary–just barely hitting the threshold for a living wage for a single adult ($11.39 in Hennepin County).  There may be little incentive to encourage workers to take on these roles as the number of job opportunities begins to exceed the number of available workers in the laborforce.

We are already observing high rates of job vacancies in entry-level healthcare positions that require an Associate’s degree or less.  Online job postings in the Twin Cities Metro for low-experience, low-education Licensed Practical Nurses and Home Health Aides have increased more than 7% since 2015, dramatically greater than other entry-level healthcare opportunities.  Hennepin County was home to 24% of the state’s total entry-level healthcare positions in 2016.

As Minnesota continues to face changing demographics, how will employers respond to ensure that they attract the candidates they need? Hopefully, we will start to see rising wages for entry-level healthcare positions.

For more data on healthcare occupations at the Twin Cities and Statewide level, check out our reports page.

Twin Cities Healthcare Report, March 2017

Minnesota Healthcare Report, March 2017

Portfolio Items