Disparate Impacts: Urban and Rural Workforce Experiences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Last week, RealTime Talent completed a 6-part series highlighting the current critical needs of employers in the 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metro (MSP), focusing on occupations that require an Associate’s degree or less and lifting up critical occupations in shortage in the region.[1] We have also continued to deliver highlights of statewide job posting trends and leading indicators of our workforce needs and economic situation in the midst of multiple health and social crises impacting our nation. This week, we expand our view to look at the unique experiences of urban areas and rural areas across Minnesota and unpack what unique and disparate impacts these communities are experiencing. Disaggregation of data by demographics and locations will help Minnesota better tailor recovery and redesign of our economies to better serve all residents.
National Context
Nationwide, the May jobs report was in many ways unexpectedly positive, reinforcing what many economists had predicted would be a sharp and short impact on employment numbers.[2] The report indicated that there were an additional 2.5 million people employed nationwide in comparison to April (the first time it has added jobs since February), and that nearly 50% of job gains were in leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and construction industries starting in mid-May. Overall, the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April—though the Bureau of Labor Statistics was clear about the fact that it had misclassified data in March, April, and May, thus undercounting the true unemployment which was likely closer to 19.7% in April 16.3% in May (this article explains well what the BLS meant by “misclassification”).
The Employment Situation-May2020. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Released June 5, 2020. Accessed at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
[2] The Employment Situation-May2020. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Released June 5, 2020. Accessed at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
However, the overall 1.4% decline in unemployment was not felt by all communities equally. Specifically, unemployment rates dropped for white and Hispanic workers nationwide, but increased for Asian and Black or African American workers (by 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points respectively). Teenagers (16-19) saw slightly improved unemployment rates in May, dropping two percentage points to 29.9% unemployment. Adult women (13.9%) continue to experience unemployment at higher rates than adult men (11.6%). These experiences are echoed across most states in our nation and was consistent across both urban and rural areas.
The Employment Situation-May2020. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Released June 5, 2020. Accessed at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The Employment Situation-May2020. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Released June 5, 2020. Accessed at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Nationwide, there were a total of 9,054,955 new jobs posted between March 16 and June 15, 2020 (a decrease of 16.9% from the prior 3-month period, and a decrease of 25.3% from the prior year). The chart below illustrates new job postings advertised monthly back to 2019, highlighting the recent sustained drop in postings during the COVID-19 period.
As we watch online job posting volumes begin to slowly rebound toward pre-COVID-19 levels, we are left with questions about what the mix of occupations in-demand will be going forward, and how much we can rely on our official employment demand forecasts. The sections below begin to highlight the unique experiences of urban and rural Minnesota as we observe the disparate impacts of job loss by race and ethnicity in the MSP Metro, Urban Greater Minnesota, and Rural Greater Minnesota.
MSP Metro Experience
Economic Overview
The MSP Metro is comprised of seven counties: Hennepin, Ramsey, Anoka, Dakota, Scott, Washington, and Carver.
By observing trends and forecasts by industry clusters, we can begin to plan for the unique workforce needs of a given region. An industry cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The size of the circles in the chart below indicate the volume of employment in the region as of the beginning of 2020. Circles shown in the top right quadrant of the chart are high-wage, and high growth industry clusters in the MSP Metro—specifically, the Construction, Utilities, Professional Services, Financial Services, and Pharmaceutical industry clusters. The industry cluster in the MSP Metro with the highest relative concentration is Electric/Electronics Manufacturing with a location quotient of 2.27. This cluster employs 45,194 workers in the region with an average wage of $102,381. However, employment in the Electric/Electronics Manufacturing cluster is projected to contract in the region about 0.9% per year over the next ten years. Further occupation employment details in Rural Greater MN by place of work can be found in the Appendix, linked here.
Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2019Q2 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.
Unemployment Impacts
As of June 15, 2020, about 70% of all Minnesota unemployment applications in the last three months were in the MSP Metro—a total of 455,992 applications in the region.[3] This means that about 26% of the total employed population in the MSP Metro applied for unemployment insurance in the past three months. This does not include the estimated 52,591 people (2.9%) who were unemployed at the beginning of 2020, pre-COVID-19.[4] Note that employment estimates for 2020Q1 describe resident employment, which is based on place of residence and not place of work.
Consistent with trends observed in the region over the past two months, Asian and Black workers have applied for unemployment insurance at higher rates than their share of overall employment. Black and African American workers account for about 8.4% of the total workforce as of the beginning of 2020, they account for about 14% of all unemployment insurance applicants since March 16th.
By age, younger workers are experiencing unemployment at higher rates than other groups. While only 9% of the employed workforce, 20 to 24 year-olds account for 13% of all unemployment insurance applications since March 16th. Over 37% of workers in this age group have applied for unemployment insurance since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty-five to thirty-four year-olds have also applied for unemployment insurance at higher rates than their overall share of employment. Over 28% of all workers between the ages of 25 and 34 applied for unemployment insurance in the past three months. Since mid-May, the share of applications for unemployment insurance among older workers over the age of 65 have increased to 6% of all applications over the past three months.
[3] Totals in each of the tables in this section will vary, as not all applicants report their race, ethnicity, gender, or occupation of former employment. Unemployment Insurance data were accessed on MN DEED’s website at https://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/unemployment-insurance-statistics/. Employment estimates for 2020Q1 are from JobsEQ, based on Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Employment estimates are based on place of residence, not place of work.
[4] Unemployment estimate for 2019Q4 are from JobsEQ, based on Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Age cohorts of Unemployment Insurance applicants, data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
Females continue to experience unemployment at higher rates than Males in the MSP Metro since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. Overall, over 28% of working females have applied for unemployment insurance since March 16, with 53% of all applications in this time frame being made by female workers (despite the fact that they comprise slightly less than 49% of the workforce).
Table only indicates gender as it was reported by Unemployment Insurance applicants, data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
The region’s two largest occupation groups by employment volume were hit hard by the effects of COVID-19. Since March 16, 29,002 Retail Sales Workers have applied for unemployment insurance—approximately 33% of all regional employment in these roles. The Food and Beverage Serving Worker occupation employed 82,146 people in the MSP Metro as of 2020Q1, but 17,993 people in these roles applied for unemployment insurance in the past 3 months. More detail on other occupations can be found in the Appendix.
* The top three largest occupations group by employment are denoted with a star. The other critical occupations in the table were selected due to the high concentration of the occupation in the geography, as known as the location quotient (LQ), and, then, a positive annual year-to year growth rate or a high replacement demand. Unemployment Insurance applicant data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
Job Posting Trends
In the 7-County MSP Metro, there were a total of about 143,000 new jobs posted between March 16 and June 15, 2020 (a decrease of 17.5% from the prior 3-month period, and a decrease of 30% from the prior year). The chart below illustrates new job postings advertised monthly back to 2019, highlighting the recent sustained drop in postings during the COVID-19 period. Occupations with the highest percent growth in job postings over the past three months indicate increased demand for essential workers, remote work positions, and—interestingly—tire repairers and changers in comparison to 2019. MSP Metro jobs with the greatest decline in job postings in comparison to 2019 reflect non-essential healthcare roles, assistants, and bus and truck mechanics. Finance and Manufacturing occupations requiring an Associate’s Degree or less saw an increase in volume of new job postings in 2020 in comparison to 2019, while all other occupation groups saw a decline in job postings.
Urban Greater Minnesota Experience
Economic Overview
Besides the MSP region, communities that are considered urban based on population size and economic factors include Duluth, Rochester, St. Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead, and East Grand Forks (large towns, which include Albert Lea, Austin, Bemidji, Brainerd, Fergus Falls, Hibbing, Marshall, Owatonna, Virginia, Willmar, and Worthington, are captured under the section that follows).
By observing trends and forecasts by industry clusters, we can begin to plan for the unique workforce needs of a given region. An industry cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The size of the circles in the chart below focused on Urban Greater MN indicate the volume of employment in the region as of the first quarter of 2020. Circles shown in the top right quadrant of the chart are high-wage, and high growth industry clusters, which include Health, Utilities, and Construction. The industry cluster in Urban Greater MN with the highest relative concentration is Metal & Product Manufacturing with a location quotient of 2.01. This cluster employs about 6,986 workers in the region with an average wage of $76,788. Employment in the Metal & Product Manufacturing cluster is projected to contract in the region about 0.6% per year over the next ten years. Further occupation employment details in Rural Greater MN by place of work can be found in the Appendix, linked here.
Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2019Q2 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.
Unemployment Impacts
As of June 15, 2020, about 17% of all Minnesota unemployment applications in the last three months were in the Urban Greater MN —a total of 111,290 applications in the region.[5] This means that about 25% of the total employed population in the Urban Greater MN applied for unemployment insurance in the past three months. This does not include the estimated 15,572 people (3.3%) who were unemployed at the beginning of 2020, pre-COVID-19.[6] Note that employment estimates for 2020Q1 describe resident employment, which is based on place of residences and not place of work.
Consistent with trends observed in the region over the past two months, Asian and Black workers have applied for unemployment insurance at higher rates than their share of overall employment. Black and African American workers account for about 2.8% of the total workforce as of the beginning of 2020, they account for about 7% of all unemployment insurance applicants since March 16th.
[5] Totals in each of the tables in this section will vary, as not all applicants report their race, ethnicity, gender, or occupation of former employment. Unemployment Insurance data were accessed on MN DEED’s website at https://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/unemployment-insurance-statistics/. Employment estimates for 2020Q1 are from JobsEQ, based on Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Employment estimates are based on place of residence, not place of work.
[6] Unemployment estimate for 2019Q4 are from JobsEQ, based on Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Table only indicates race and ethnic groups tracked in Unemployment Insurance applicant data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
By age, younger workers are experiencing unemployment at higher rates than other groups. The 20 to 24 year-olds account for 13% of the employed workforce and 14% of all unemployment insurance applications since March 16th. Over 27% of workers in this age group have applied for unemployment insurance since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty-five to thirty-four year-olds have also applied for unemployment insurance at higher rates than their overall share of employment. Over 28% of all workers between the ages of 25 and 34 applied for unemployment insurance in the past three months. Since mid-May, the share of applications for unemployment insurance among older workers over the past three months is lower or proportional to the percent of employed in that age range.
Age cohorts of Unemployment Insurance applicants, data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
Females continue to experience unemployment at higher rates than Males in the Urban Greater MN since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. Overall, over 27% of working females have applied for unemployment insurance since March 16, with 53% of all applications in this time frame being made by female workers (despite the fact that they comprise slightly less than 49% of the workforce).
Table only indicates gender as it was reported by Unemployment Insurance applicants, data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
The region’s three largest occupation groups by employment volume were hit hard by the effects of COVID-19. Since March 16, 8,352 Food and Beverage Serving Workers have applied for unemployment insurance—approximately 36% of all regional employment in these roles. The Other Healthcare occupation employed 7,161 people in the Urban Greater MN as of 2020Q1, but 57% or 4,116 people in these roles applied for unemployment insurance in the past 3 months.
* The top three largest occupations group by employment are denoted with a star. The other critical occupations in the table were selected due to the high concentration of the occupation in the geography, as known as the location quotient (LQ), and, then, a positive annual year-to year growth rate or a high replacement demand. Unemployment Insurance applicant data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
Job Posting Trends
In Urban Greater MN, there were a total of 26,800 new jobs posted between March 16 and June 15, 2020 (a decrease of 6.1% from the prior 3-month period, and a decrease of 17.8 from the prior year). The chart below illustrates new job postings advertised monthly back to 2019, highlighting the recent sustained drop in postings during the COVID-19 period. Interestingly, Urban Greater MN saw an increase in cashiers, food service, and sales workers during this period in addition to other occupations more similar to what was observed nationally and in the MSP Metro. Supervisory and assistant job postings declined in volume between March 16 and June 15th 2020 in comparison to 2019. Small towns on the outer edges of large metros saw the biggest growth in new job postings, while it was the larger urban centers that saw the most significant declines in job posting volumes in comparison to 2019. There was greater recruiting activity for Urban Greater MN Manufacturing sector positions that require only an Associate’s Degree or less over the past three months compared to 2019, while all other sectors tracked saw declines in new job volume in these communities.
Rural Greater Minnesota Experience
Economic Overview
Rural Greater MN is made up of all counties not part of a major city or MSA (Minneapolis-St. Paul, Duluth, Rochester, St. Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead, or East Grand Forks).[7]
By observing trends and forecasts by industry clusters, we can begin to plan for the unique workforce needs of a given region. An industry cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The size of the circles in the chart below indicate the volume of employment in the region as of the fourth quarter of 2019. The circles shown in the top right quadrant of the chart are high-wage, and high growth industry clusters in Rural Greater MN, which include Health, Utilities, and Construction. The industry cluster in Rural Greater MN with the highest relative concentration is Agricultural with a location quotient of 3.83. This cluster employs 37,587 workers in the region with an average wage of $52,365. Employment in the Agricultural cluster is projected to contract in Rural Greater MN by about 0.8% per year over the next ten years. Further occupation employment details in Rural Greater MN by place of work can be found in the Appendix, linked here.
[7] Large towns (which include Albert Lea, Austin, Bemidji, Brainerd, Fergus Falls, Hibbing, Marshall, Owatonna, Virginia, Willmar, and Worthington) are captured under the section that follows.
Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2019Q2 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.
Unemployment Impacts
About 29% of all unemployment applications made in Minnesota in the last three months were in Rural Greater MN.[8] In all, there were 189,342 total new applications for unemployment insurance in the rural parts of the state between March 16 and June 15, 2020. This means that about 23% of all workers in rural Minnesota applied for unemployment insurance during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic. This does not include the estimated 34,626 people (4.0%) who were unemployed at the beginning of 2020, pre-COVID-19.[9] Note that employment estimates for 2020Q1 describe resident employment, which is based on place of residences and not place of work.
Across the Rural Greater Minnesota area, rates of unemployment insurance applications suggest that Black and American Indian workers are experiencing unemployment because of the pandemic to a greater degree than non-Hispanic White workers. Although Black and African American workers only comprise about 1.2% of the workforce in rural areas of the state, they account for 2% of unemployment insurance applicants. Similarly, while 1.4% of all rural employees are American Indian or Alaska Native, 2% of unemployment insurance applicants since March 16th identified with this group.
[8] Totals in each of the tables in this section will vary, as not all applicants report their race, ethnicity, gender, or occupation of former employment. Unemployment Insurance data were accessed on MN DEED’s website at https://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/unemployment-insurance-statistics/. Employment estimates for 2020Q1 are from JobsEQ, based on Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Employment estimates are based on place of residence, not place of work.
[9] Unemployment estimate for 2019Q4 are from JobsEQ, based on Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Table only indicates race and ethnic groups tracked in Unemployment Insurance applicant data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
By age, younger workers are experiencing unemployment at higher rates than other groups. While only 9% of the employed workforce, 20 to 24 year-olds account for 11% of all unemployment insurance applications since March 16th. Over 28% of workers in this age group have applied for unemployment insurance since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty-five to thirty-four year-olds have also applied for unemployment insurance at higher rates than their overall share of employment. Over 27% of all workers between the ages of 25 and 34 applied for unemployment insurance in the past three months. Since mid-May, the share applications for unemployment insurance among older workers over the age of 65 have increased to 7% of all applications over the past three months.
Age cohorts of Unemployment Insurance applicants, data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
Like the MSP Metro and Urban Greater MN, females have experienced unemployment at higher rates than Males in the Rural Greater MN since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. Overall, over 29% of working females have applied for unemployment insurance since March 16, with 54% of all applications in this time frame being made by female workers (despite the fact that they comprise slightly less than 48% of the workforce).
Table only indicates gender as it was reported by Unemployment Insurance applicants, data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
The region’s two largest occupation groups by employment volume were hit hard by the effects of COVID-19. Since March 16, 42,213 Food and Beverage Serving Workers have applied for unemployment insurance—approximately 32% of all regional employment in these roles. The Other Production Occupations employed 24,034 people in the MSP Metro as of 2020Q1, but 35% people in these roles applied for unemployment insurance in the past 3 months.
* The top three largest occupations group by employment are denoted with a star. The other critical occupations in the table were selected due to the high concentration of the occupation in the geography, as known as the location quotient (LQ), and, then, a positive annual year-to year growth rate or a high replacement demand. Unemployment Insurance applicant data available through MN DEED. Red text indicates where the share of unemployment insurance applicants is greater than the share of total estimated employment as of 2020Q1. Employment estimates are based on place of residence of the worker, not place of workers’ employment.
Job Posting Trends
Rural Greater MN actually saw a slight increase in volume of new job postings over the past three months compared to the same period in 2019. Across Rural Greater MN, there were a total of 58,235 new jobs posted between March 16 and June 15, 2020 (an increase of 2.2% from the prior 3-month period, and an increase of 14% from the prior year). The chart below illustrates new job postings advertised monthly back to 2019, highlighting the recent sustained drop in postings during the COVID-19 period. The occupation that saw the greatest increase in volume since 2019 was Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Materials Movers, followed by several other occupations that were similarly in-demand in urban areas across Minnesota from March 16 through June 15th. The greatest increases in new job posting volumes were among Manufacturing positions requiring an Associate’s Degree or less, but entry-level Finance and Healthcare positions also saw more new jobs posted in the past three months of 2020 than the same time period in 2019. Advanced positions in Information Technology that require a Bachelor’s Degree or higher also increased by 9% between March 16 and June 15, 2020 compared to the same time frame in 2019.
1 SOURCE: All data in this section is from new jobs posted online between March 16 and June 11, 2020. Data includes staffing agencies and represents deduplicated new job posts from all corporate websites and job boards. Trend comparison to a prior period refers to the week immediately prior. All data was gathered from TalentNeuron Recruit, www.wantedanalytics.com on June 17 and June 22, 2020.
2 All sectors are defined as job families that are related by skills, competencies, and career pathways, with the exception of Government jobs. The Government sector is identified by city, county, regional, and state government employers.
Report released on 6/23/2020 by RealTime Talent on the INSIGHTS blog at www.realtimetalent.org. Contact Erin Olson, Research Strategist at erin@realtimetalentmn.org with any questions or inquiries.
